The Crisis of Israel's Democracy, 1948-2025
The Crisis of Israel's Democracy, 1948 - 2025: Origins, Developments, and Consequences focuses on Israeli democracy, its deep historical origins, development over seven decades, long-term consequences, and possible resolutions. While most commentaries on Israel's crisis focus on the proposals for judicial reform by the Netanyahu government, this study focuses on what it identifies as the fundamental problems of the Israeli regime-its ethnonational (rather than liberal-democratic) form, its lack of a written constitution undermines the country's deeply divided society, the greatly dysfunctional relations between the secular majority and the sizeable Orthodox minority, and above all the seemingly permanent occupation of the Palestinian-inhabited West Bank. Peleg and Amir offer a broad perspective on these causes, covering the historical failures of the country's founders, an analysis of Israel's constitutional order and regime type, commentary on sociopolitical cleavages and the dominant social psychology of Israelis, and analysis of the charismatic populism of longtime Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The volume concludes with analyzing future scenarios and possible solutions for Israel's democratic crisis. The Crisis of Israel's Democracy offers the most comprehensive analysis of Israel's democratic backsliding to date, comparing it to similar worldwide processes.
China in the World Bank, IMF, and WIPO
Previously one of the least connected states in the world, China is taking on a considerable role as a leading global power. It has participated and benefited from international organizations (IOs) while also influencing their institutional behavior, but it has also demonstrated limited compliance at times. China's behavior has shifted from following the rules to a desire to make and set the rules. China in the World Bank, IMF, and WIPO: Understanding Trends in Global Governance Behavior explores 40 years of China's participation within these organizations, drawing on in-depth interviews and analysis of annual reports, meeting minutes, consultations, and transcripts obtained from archived records to argue how China views its behavior can achieve its desired interests. James Frick paints a detailed picture to illustrate that in the context of relative shifts in power, variation in China's IO behaviors is predicated by the extent to which IOs conform to China's national interests. This rational behavior approach (RBA) outlines four strategies: rule-taking, rule-breaking, rule-changing, and rulemaking. As China's relative power increases over time, so does its bargaining power, leading to a more assertive rule-changing behavior as it attempts to adapt the organization to allow its ascendancy as a rule-maker.
The Strait of Hormuz Gambit
"The Strait of Hormuz Gambit" analyses global energy security in light of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a specific focus on the fragile balance concerning the Strait of Hormuz. It outlines three potential future scenarios: a limited conflict between 2025 and 2026; a prolonged partial disruption from 2026 to 2028 leading to an energy crisis; and a complete strategic transformation of the global energy landscape from 2028 to 2035. The economic stability of regional powers and global energy markets is heavily dependent on the uninterrupted flow of oil and gas through the strait. Any disruption threatens to cause significant price volatility and supply insecurity, necessitating urgent energy diversification and mitigation strategies. Enhancing the resilience of offshore infrastructure and ensuring maritime security through international cooperation are critical to managing these risks.Beyond the immediate geopolitical risks, the book explores the broader shift towards a new energy paradigm. The rise of renewable energy, technological innovations, and the development of new energy corridors in Africa and the Americas are reshaping the global map. Hydrogen is identified as a crucial future energy carrier, with China and India expected to become major players. Concurrently, Europe is transitioning towards sustainable energy leadership, with energy diplomacy playing a key role in this process.The report concludes by reflecting on the end of the oil age and the emergence of a new geopolitical order. It stresses that international cooperation and a shared, forward-looking vision are essential for navigating this transition to a secure and sustainable future.The Strait of Hormuz Gambit* is an essential read for anyone interested in the interconnection between regional strife, global economics, and the evolving landscape of international energy security.
UN Security Council Enlargement
The United Nations Security Council has had in its history a single flash of true international relevance. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) signed up for Security Council relevance with the publication by Mikhail Gorbachev of Reality and Safeguards for a Secure World. That document heralded the USSR's preference that the United Nations fill the power vacuum left by its contracting empire rather than the United States, which was the other obvious choice then as now. Owing to this entirely unique, and relatively peaceful implosion of the USSR's global empire, the USSR consciously, if temporarily, reinvigorated the United Nations and sought to re-join the ranks of Roosevelt's "four policemen." A few years later for the United States, President George H.W. Bush, following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, took the USSR up on its offer and announced that, "Out of these troubled times and a new world order can emerge and built upon a United Nations that performs as envisaged by its founders."This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Resurgent Russia and America's Vital Interests
This research paper addresses the relevance of Russia's resurgence as an economic, political and military actor on the world scene focusing on the implications for current US policy and objectives. It considers the changing nature of the threat to Europe and questions, not only the appropriate role for NATO in response to that threat, but the course of action the US should pursue with regard to NATO and in light of US national security interests in Europe. The paper considers the following: 1). Russia's post-Cold War decline as well as its impressive recovery over the past decade. Focusing on Russia's growing economic and regional clout, rising nationalism, increasing great power rhetoric and return to autocratic policies, the paper looks at the decline in US " Russian relations during the second term of Russian president Vladimir Putin and questions the appropriate balance the US should strike between conciliation and defending its own strategic objectives, 2). the effects of numerous issues on US " Russian relations to include: the changing role of NATO and its eastward expansion, disagreement on ethnic break-away regions to include Kosovo in Serbia and South Ossetia in Georgia, Iranian nuclear ambitions, and the US Anti-Ballistic Missile proposal for Eastern Europe, 3). a recommendation for strategic-level policy to which the US should adhere concerning its role with NATO and its need for balance on issues within Russia's geo-political sphere of influence.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Resurgent Russia and America's Vital Interests
This research paper addresses the relevance of Russia's resurgence as an economic, political and military actor on the world scene focusing on the implications for current US policy and objectives. It considers the changing nature of the threat to Europe and questions, not only the appropriate role for NATO in response to that threat, but the course of action the US should pursue with regard to NATO and in light of US national security interests in Europe. The paper considers the following: 1). Russia's post-Cold War decline as well as its impressive recovery over the past decade. Focusing on Russia's growing economic and regional clout, rising nationalism, increasing great power rhetoric and return to autocratic policies, the paper looks at the decline in US " Russian relations during the second term of Russian president Vladimir Putin and questions the appropriate balance the US should strike between conciliation and defending its own strategic objectives, 2). the effects of numerous issues on US " Russian relations to include: the changing role of NATO and its eastward expansion, disagreement on ethnic break-away regions to include Kosovo in Serbia and South Ossetia in Georgia, Iranian nuclear ambitions, and the US Anti-Ballistic Missile proposal for Eastern Europe, 3). a recommendation for strategic-level policy to which the US should adhere concerning its role with NATO and its need for balance on issues within Russia's geo-political sphere of influence.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Special Operations Forces Requirements for Africa Command
Africa holds growing geo-strategic importance and is a high priority of this Administration. It is a place of promise and opportunity, linked to the United States by history, culture, commerce, and strategic significance." In order assist the U.S. in meeting these growing promises and opportunities, President Bush directed the establishment of the United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM) on February 6, 2007 with the intent that it would be fully operational by the end of fiscal year 2008. Under this new command, a sub-unified command, Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA), will emerge with geographic responsibility for Special Operations Forces (SOF) and SOF missions in the USAFRICOM Area of Responsibility (AOR). Furthermore, under the umbrella of its global responsibility for planning, synchronizing, and executing global operations against terrorist networks, United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) will also conduct operations in this AOR. At issue is the best way for SOF, from both SOCAFRICA and USSOCOM, to be employed across Africa. Based upon a research method of literature search of current sources, particularly of open source news articles, press releases, reports, policy, directives, and doctrine, this paper is presented to provide key requirements and recommendations for SOF in Africa.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
The Virtual State
As is the case with many academic arguments, it is all but impossible to unequivocally prove the existence of the virtual state. That said, the evidence certainly indicates that a new breed of transnational actor is having a profound impact on the policies and behaviors of traditional states as they cope with a rapidly changing world. In reality, as the world changes, states are changing too. Consider the observations of Rosecrance. "The nation-state is becoming a tighter, more vigorous unit capable of sustaining the pressures of worldwide competition and they are downsizing--in function, if not in geographic form."21 "The world has embarked on a progressive emancipation from the land as a determinant of production and power."22 If it is true that states are streamlining by placing less emphasis on the importance of territory, they are in effect obviating one of the key structural components of the traditional state. With this in mind, the rise of a significant, completely borderless political actor, the virtual state, seems quite plausible if not inevitable. In this author's view, they are already among us and are likely to proliferate and grow in strength as the forces of globalization and rapidly advancing technology continue to shape the geopolitical landscape.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Unraveling the Persian Knot
In 1979 Ayatollah Khomeini's indirect approach ignited existing socio-economic conditions during the Iranian Revolution to topple the Shah. A similar indirect approach using psychological operations to target audiences through key vulnerabilities and networks may have applicability for strategies today. Joint Pub 5-0 defines the indirect approach as the employment of attacks on an adversary's derived vulnerabilities when conditions do not permit direct attacks against a defined center of gravity (COG). "A COG can be viewed as the set of characteristics, capabilities, and sources of power from which a system derives its moral or physical strength, freedom of action, and will to act." Using a combination of operations, an indirect approach targets the COG by attacking key adversary weaknesses or requirements. When performed successfully, an indirect approach can isolate, sever, defeat, or degrade adversary capabilities to ultimately prevent their use. In the Shah's case, Khomeini focused on Iranian public opinion to degrade the monarch's legitimacy, and also military morale and unity to effectively neutralize the Iranian armed forces. Ayatollah Khomeini effectively unified various Iranian opposition groups through a common hatred and desire to overthrow the Shah. Most significant, the Ayatollah accomplished this while residing entirely outside Iran's borders using psychological operations as the primary arm of his approach. Joint doctrine defines psychological operations as, "planned operations to convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence the emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals." Often misunderstood, psychological operations require sufficient time in order to work but given appropriate time the effects can often be dramatic. Khomeini's synchronization of psychological operations with coordinated internal political violence successfully deThis work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Operational Implications of Private Military Companies in the Global War on Terror
This monograph discusses the implications of private military companies (PMCs) in the global war on terror (GWOT). The recent upsurge in the use of PMCs to support the prosecution of the global war on terror has impinged increasingly on what is traditionally seen as the state monopoly on violence. PMCs as entities on the stage of conflict are widely misunderstood and as a result, often operate in an area of scant regulation, limited oversight, and ineffective control. As PMCs become increasingly involved in operations, the implications for the military are wide ranging and planners and commanders need to be aware of the capabilities and limitations of PMCs. Currently, little doctrine and guidance exists on PMCs. Specifically, this monograph examines the myriad factors concerned with PMCs, their benefits and disadvantages. The purpose of this paper is to assess the operational implications of the employment of PMCs. It will analyze the identity and current state of the PMC industry. The hypothesis is that the current level of PMC use is not a deliberate policy decision, but a result of assumptions of the nature of the GWOT and that the current state of legislation and contractual oversight is woefully inadequate. Why are armed civilians operating with legal impunity in Iraq? How much is the military aware of this and why is there no doctrine available for commanders or planners to consult regarding PMCs? Through the application of a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis, the above questions will be answered. The analysis is then presented, primarily, through the lens of the elements of operational design. The monograph concludes that the considerable utility of PMCs should not be overlooked and that they can be valuable contributors and partners in the war against terror. Currently though, numerous issues regarding PMCs need attention. The study suggests that the rapid growth of the use of PMCs is largely unregulated and not under proper control.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Evolution of China's Nuclear Capability
The strategic arms control process to reduce nuclear weapons and contain the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is a center piece of the United States arms control policy. To be effective in arms control negotiations with the Chinese, the United States must understand China's past experience and perspectives regarding nuclear weapons. What drove the Chinese to develop nuclear weapons? What kind of force structure was required? How many? How would they deploy and employ these weapons? This paper will address these questions and argue the United States is negotiating arms control policies with the Chinese without a clear understanding of the Chinese perspectives, interests, and concerns.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
The End of Hegemony
The era of US global hegemony is drawing to a close. Within the next quarter century, revolutionary technological developments and new military capabilities will fracture the geopolitical strategic landscape, propelling today's near peer states into a parity position with the US. A shift to an information-centric globe will see ongoing conflict over the control of information through the new global commons of space and cyberspace. Technological advances in these areas coupled with the deterrent value of nuclear weapons will reduce the effectiveness of US conventional forces, and US interests will be challenged on a global scale. A new reality of continuous conflict over information will emerge in space and cyberspace where it will not be possible for a single state to maintain dominance. Through a deliberate focus on information and space control technologies, China and Russia are positioned to gain strategic military parity with the United States, resulting in the emergence of a new tri-polar world. Three examples of technologies critical to the conflict over information control are explored: information warfare, space operations, and nuclear weapons. The Chinese have embarked on a campaign of "Informationization"; to attain mastery of both the electromagnetic spectrum and the global cyber sphere. This approach includes the attempted dominance of air, space, and cyber mediums, through cyber operations, information operations, electronic attack, and kinetic attack.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Assessing the Capabilities and Limitations of Counter-Proliferation Operations Utilizing Remote Radiation Detection Devices
A subject of national importance that poses a major security challenge for the United States and its allies is the detection, tracking, and interception of illicitly obtained radioactive material across international borders. Illicit radioactive material can include both special nuclear material (SNM) and radioactive isotopes utilized for industrial, medical, and academic purposes. This paper will analyze the United State's capability to execute counter-proliferation operations in a spectrum from friendly to hostile environments wherein both overt and clandestine activity is essential. The paper is written for planners and decision makers at all levels of the United States government, military and civilian; to better prepare these individuals for the operational considerations of a counter-proliferation mission. The focus of the paper will be linking operational planning to both the strategic and tactical capabilities of the United States concerning counter-proliferation operations in a non-permissive or semi-permissive environment.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
UN Security Council Enlargement
The United Nations Security Council has had in its history a single flash of true international relevance. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) signed up for Security Council relevance with the publication by Mikhail Gorbachev of Reality and Safeguards for a Secure World. That document heralded the USSR's preference that the United Nations fill the power vacuum left by its contracting empire rather than the United States, which was the other obvious choice then as now. Owing to this entirely unique, and relatively peaceful implosion of the USSR's global empire, the USSR consciously, if temporarily, reinvigorated the United Nations and sought to re-join the ranks of Roosevelt's "four policemen." A few years later for the United States, President George H.W. Bush, following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, took the USSR up on its offer and announced that, "Out of these troubled times and a new world order can emerge and built upon a United Nations that performs as envisaged by its founders."This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Strategic Communication and Public Affairs
Public Affairs and Strategic Communication are becoming increasingly more important in today's information-centric world. Air Force officials have given lip-service to the primacy of these skill sets, but have not reinforced those words with significant action toward training or equipping today's public affairs officers to be strategic communicators. Using the problem-solution research methodology, I begin this paper by examining the current state of Air Force Public Affairs, including the doctrine and training. One of the primary areas considered is the lack of consistent formal training for public affairs officers beyond their initial career field training. I also delve into the realm of the emerging strategic communications field, and how the Air Force and Department of Defense (DoD) officials are struggling to define and meet this mission area. Next, I analyze the necessary ties in strategic communication between public affairs and information operations, the doctrinal overlaps and similarities, and some of the challenges therein. The conclusion of the paper is a recommended roadmap for enhanced, standardized training for Air Force public affairs officers throughout their careers. The application of an operations-type initial qualification training (IQT) and mission qualification training (MQT) system is prescribed, to ensure the necessary training objectives are met. These steps will shape tomorrow's public affairs professionals into well-trained and well-rounded advisers best able to support combatant commanders and DoD strategic communication goals.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
The Mechanism for Strategic Coercion
In the post-cold war environment of shrinking budgets and uncertain threats, America can no longer politically, nor economically, afford strategies that rely on our traditional military strategy of annihilation and exhaustion. Furthermore, America's position as the single remaining superpower virtually guarantees that our vital interests will not be directly challenged. This means that the use of military force is becoming even more politicized. Despite military leaders' apparent adherence to Clausewitz's maxim that war is an extension of policy, they usually approach strategic planning as if the application of force can be planned separately from the political effort. The traditional American military brute-force strategy does not always meet our national needs in this new world order.Strategic Coercion offers one alternative to this brute-force approach. Simply stated, strategic coercion is the act of inducing or compelling an adversary to do something to which he is averse. It involves using force and threatening action to compel an adversary to cease his current activity, or coerce him to reverse actions already taken. Two contemporary theories of strategic coercion seem to offer promising alternatives to brute force.First, Robert Pape's Denial Theory is based on the assumption that states make decisions as if they are rational, unitary actors attempting to maximize the utility of their choices. Essentially, nations perform a cost-benefit evaluation to determine the best course of action. Theoretically, one may be able to coerce a target nation by raising the expected costs to a prohibitive level, but Pape advocates that this is generally ineffective in conventional conflicts. Instead, coercion requires that the target nation be denied the probability of achieving the sought-after benefits. Denial Theory proposes that the specific means for coercion is the opponent's military vulnerability: defeating an opponent's military strategy denies him the probabilityThis work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Patterns of War Termination
This research uses an advanced statistical technique to expand upon the current understanding of war termination. Specifically, this thesis addressed questions concerning the most relevant factors toward predicting both the outcomes of interstate wars and the winners of intrastate and extra-systemic wars, within the limitations of the available data. Open-source war data from the Correlates of War Project was analyzed using both binary and multinomial logistic regression techniques. While the Correlates of War Project did not necessarily focus its data collection efforts on those variables historically associated with war termination, it did provide a sufficient number of variables with which to demonstrate the applicability of logistic regression techniques to war termination analyses. As a consequence, every significant logistic regression model contains a single relevant variable. For both intrastate and extra-systemic wars, the duration of the conflict was found to be most relevant to predicting the winner. In contrast, the proportion of total casualties borne by a nation in an interstate war was most relevant to predicting the manner in which an interstate war ends. Conclusions drawn from this research and suggestions for future statistical applications to war termination studies were also discussed.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
The Legitimacy of Drone Warfare
This book examines public perceptions of the legitimacy of drones, and how this affects countries' policies on and the global governance of drone warfare.
Emerging China and the Japan U.S. Alliance
Emerging China is undoubtedly one of the biggest future security concerns for both Japan and the United States. The friction between China and Japan has recently grown, especially over territorial issues such as Senkaku Island. The United States also has disagreement with China over several issues such as human rights, Taiwan, Tibet, North Korea, and economic matters including currency and trade. The bilateral relationship between Japan and the United States will be instrumental for both countries to cope with China in the future. However, there is also friction within the Japan-U.S. alliance, and there are concerns within both countries. U.S. military bases in Okinawa have become a highly controversial issue in Japan, and Japanese criticism of the alliance has grown in recent years. In the United States, some opine that the United States should strengthen its bilateral economic relationship with China, signifying a diminution of the Japan-U.S. alliance.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Western Balkans as Base for Radical Islamists
This thesis addresses the primary research question: Are the Balkans becoming a European sanctuary for radical Islamists. Research is focused on what are the factors that contribute in creation of favorable condition for radical Islamists in the Western Balkans. There are three perspectives addressed in the analysis. First, the European influence in relations of geopolitical communication with the Western Balkans. The second perspective is the Western Balkans as a primary region and how its countries with their actions (or passiveness) are contributing to creation of the factors that favor radical Islamists. The last perspective is Balkan Muslims and their role in this complex environment.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO
NATO has been a "nuclear" alliance since its inception. Nuclear weapons have served the dual purpose of being part of NATO military planning as well as being central to the Alliance's deterrence strategy. For over 4 decades, NATO allies sought to find conventional and nuclear forces, doctrines, and agreed strategies that linked the defense of Europe to that of the United States. Still, in light of the evolving security situation, the Alliance must now consider the role and future of tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs). Two clear conclusions emerge from this analysis. First, in the more than 2 decades since the end of the Cold War, the problem itself-that is, the question of what to do with weapons designed in a previous century for the possibility of a World War III against a military alliance that no longer exists-is understudied, both inside and outside of government. Tactical weapons, although less awesome than their strategic siblings, carry significant security and political risks, and they have not received the attention that is commensurate to their importance. Second, it is clear that whatever the future of these arms, the status quo is unacceptable. It is past the time for NATO to make more resolute decisions, find a coherent strategy, and formulate more definite plans about its nuclear status. Consequently, decisions about the role of nuclear weapons within the Alliance and the associated supporting analysis are fundamental to the future identity of NATO. At the Lisbon Summit in Portugal in November 2010, the Alliance agreed to conduct the Deterrence and Defense Posture Review (DDPR). This effort is designed to answer these difficult questions prior to the upcoming NATO Summit in May 2012. The United States and its closest allies must define future threats and, in doing so, clarify NATO's identity, purpose, and corresponding force requirements. So far, NATO remains a "nuclear alliance," but it is increasingly hard to define what that means.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
La Familia Drug Cartel
La Familia Michoacana burst onto the national stage on September 6, 2006, when ruffians crashed into the seedy Sol y Sombra nightclub in Uruapan, Michoac獺n, and fired shots into the air. They screamed at the revelers to lie down, ripped open a plastic bag, and lobbed five human heads onto the beer-stained black and white dance floor. The day before these macabre pyrotechnics, the killers seized their prey from a mechanic's shop and hacked off their heads with bowie knives while the men writhed in pain. "You don't do something like that unless you want to send a big message," said a U.S. law-enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity about an act of human depravity that would "cast a pall over the darkest nooks of hell." The desperados left behind a note hailing their act as "divine justice," adding that: "The Family doesn't kill for money; it doesn't kill women; it doesn't kill innocent people; only those who deserve to die, die. Everyone should know . . . this is divine justice." While claiming to do the "Lord's work," the ruthless leaders of this syndicate have emerged as the dominant exporter of methamphetamines to the United States, even as they control scores of municipalities in Michoac獺n and neighboring states.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Post-Cold War American Foreign Policy
This study assesses American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. As the world's sole superpower, American leadership has followed one of four policies in the post-Cold War period: unilateral engagement, multilateral engagement through existing organizations, multilateral engagement through ad hoc coalitions, and non-engagement or engagement through a third party. The author assesses three case studies for each policy category, identifying the intervening variables leading American foreign policy decision-makers to each outcome. The case studies identify six intervening variables: American interest, leadership, legitimacy, required capabilities, available multilateral organizations, and alternate willing actors. The author then constructs a framework for American foreign policy decision-making, applying the six intervening variables as they lead to each of the four possible policy outcomes. Following this, the writer uses one case demonstrating the critical need to adequately contextualize the situation in order to avoid inaccurate results emerging from the framework. Finally, two recent cases of American foreign policy, not yet mature enough to allow comprehensive analysis, validate the potential to apply the framework. Ultimately, the author concludes that, while there is no one foreign policy option for the United States to apply as the lone superpower, the correct analysis of the given situation results in predictable policy choices. The policy choices are recognizable not only for the American policy-makers, but also the domestic population as it scrutinizes its government and the international community as it tries to identify what it expects from the global leader. The framework produced offers a lens to examine American foreign policy-making for this purpose.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Unemployment and Resistance in Tunisia
Saerom Han provides a reassessment of Tunisian democratisation by exploring why and how unemployed protesters became articulated with the so-called 'War on Terror' within a liberal democratic framework. This book is the first attempt to critically examine the relationship between democratisation and securitisation in Tunisia. It also provides a novel way of thinking about socioeconomic protests in and beyond Tunisia by discussing how their rationalities and techniques can sustain and at the same time challenge the neoliberal regime of power.Drawing on field research and a Foucauldian approach to democracy, resistance and security, this book situates the democracy-security nexus in the context of the neoliberal regime. It shows that the dominant counter-terrorism practices, rather than being a threat to democracy, partly served as a governing mechanism for a neoliberal modality of democracy by managing 'problematic' actors such as unemployed protesters who demanded radical changes in political and economic orders. This book also discusses how the protesters reproduced and at the same time challenged the ways that they were securitised, complicating the relationship between domination and resistance in post-2011 Tunisia.
The Revenge of Europe
The collapse of the Soviet Union, the reunification of Germany, and the emergence of the European Union (EU) have all raised questions regarding the United States' transatlantic relationship and the subsequent role of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The author takes a brief look at past US-European relations and provides an enlightening and provocative analysis of the current state of affairs. Recent tensions in the relationship, he concludes, are a result of the EU's growing role as a state actor in the international system. Policy differences between the United States and the EU are merely symptoms of the changes resulting from the EU's new role. The author proposes a tentative typology of alliances and concludes that the United States and the EU have a co-dependent relationship, with the United States subsidizing the EU's pursuit of policies that, whether by accident or design, undermine US interests. The author calls for a reformulation of the alliance that allows both the United States and the European Union to pursue their own interests while forcing the EU to take responsibility for its own defense.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Mapro
The Mass Atrocity Prevention and Response Options (MAPRO) Policy Planning Handbook is a collaborative effort intended to assist the policy community in addressing mass atrocity situations. The MAPRO Handbook supplements the Mass Atrocity Response Operations (MARO) Military Planning Handbook, which was developed by the Harvard Kennedy School's Carr Center for Human Rights Policy and PKSOI. The MAPRO Handbook provides guidelines and frameworks for the formulation of options, policies, and plans, and discusses the application of all elements of national influence in order to prevent or respond to mass atrocities.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Japan's New National Defense Program Guideline
This paper analyzes Japan's National Defense Program Guideline (NDPG), which was approved by the Security Council and Cabinet on 10 December 2004. This paper will look at what led to the updated NDPG. It will also analyze the three-pronged approach of the new NDPG: building up of Japan's own defenses, continuing the strong alliance with the United States and more cooperation with the international community. In the new NDPG, while continuing to emphasize the importance of the US-Japan security alliance, Japan seems to be taking steps to forge its own role in security policy, not only in Asia, but throughout the world. This paper examines the role Japan hopes to take in the future. It also looks at ramifications of the new NDPG. Research was taken from current press accounts of the impact of the new NDPG in addition to publications from the government of Japan and other sources who have an interest in Northeast Asian security.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Russian Nuclear Weapons
This book presents several essays analyzing Russia's extensive nuclear agenda and the issues connected with it. It deals with strategy, doctrine, European, Eurasian, and East Asian security agendas, as well as the central U.S.-Russia nuclear and arms control equations. This work brings together American, European, and Russian analysts to discuss Russia's defense and conventional forces reforms and their impact on nuclear forces, doctrine, strategy, and the critical issues of Russian security policies toward the United States, Europe, and China. It also deals directly with the present and future roles of nuclear weapons in Russian defense policy and strategy.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Guantanamo Bay
This paper compares the costs of detention operations at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba against the benefits derived from holding suspected terrorists there. When Operation Enduring Freedom began, the Bush Administration needed a place to detain enemy fighters captured on the battlefield that the US deemed to be a high threat while also possessing a high intelligence value. The Administration issued policy guidance concerning detainees and the detention center at Guantanamo Bay opened soon thereafter. In the following six years, there has been a great deal of legal analysis and ongoing litigation concerning the legality of the detentions at Guantanamo Bay, including the application of the Geneva Convention to detainees and the permissibility of the pending military commissions. These continue to be contentious issues as the US forges ahead in its efforts in the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Putting the legal questions aside, it is possible to analyze the issues at Guantanamo Bay from a purely cost-benefit standpoint. This paper seeks to conduct this analysis by comparing costs, including monetary, personnel, negative public relations, investigative and Congressional costs against the benefits of operations, including intelligence, positive public relations and deterrence benefits realized by the continued detention of enemy fighters.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Full Steam Ahead
This research paper analyzes the international political factors associated with deploying a ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) in Eastern Europe. The analysis focuses on potential benefits to US national security, domestic considerations in the countries involved, Russia's viewpoint and objections to the plan, and a scrutiny of the threat. Due to the currency of this topic, most of the research relied on current event documents, including both pro- and anti-BMDS perspectives. Additional resources included official US, Polish, Czech, Russian, and Iranian publications. Ultimately the research supports the paper's thesis, which is that deploying BMDS to Eastern Europe will enhance US security interests. The United States proposed a deployment of ten interceptor missiles to Poland and a tracking radar system to the Czech Republic to counter the proliferation of ballistic missile technology throughout the world. Iran is working to enhance its missile capabilities and may be able to target Europe and the United States with long-range missiles by 2015. Other potentially hostile nations are likely to follow in Iran's footsteps as such technology becomes available. Poland and the Czech Republic are ideally positioned so that BMDS can effectively counter long-range missiles launched from the Middle East and destined for Europe or the United States. Both countries endorsed the proposal at the NATO Summit in April 2008, but neither country has actually granted final approval. Although the governments of Poland and the Czech Republic are generally in favor of BMDS, their citizens are less supportive.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Implications of the U.S. War on Terrorism for U.S.-China Policy
The catastrophic terrorist attacks of September 11 2001 (9/11) provide both challenges and opportunities for U.S. foreign policy. As the war on terrorism continues, U.S.-China relations must be viewed through the lens of combating the terrorist threat. In "Implications of the U.S. War on Terrorism for U.S.-China Policy: A Strategic Window," the authors offer six proposals for U.S. policy vis-a-vis China in light of the war on terrorism. Each proposal stands on its own merits, providing a menu of graded options for policy makers to consider. The authors evaluate each proposal according to four criteria: organization and technical means required for implementation (shown as feasibility in the Proposal Evaluation Summary chart at the end of this summary), issues of U.S. domestic political support, issues of allied support, issues of China's perspective and provide an overall assessment. The individual criteria and the overall prospects for each proposal are graded as "straightforward," "challenging," or "difficult" to indicate the anticipated level of effort required in implementing the policy.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
NATO-Russia Relations
Following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on America, it is no surprise that combating global terrorism is the central theme found throughout the September 2002 National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States (US) of America. The NSS states, "We are also guided by the conviction that no nation can build a safer, better world alone. Alliances and multilateral institutions can multiply the strength of freedom-loving nations"1, and "Nations that enjoy freedom must actively fight terror."2 These statements reveal that US security strategy is focused on defeating this threat and the recognition of the critical role alliances and coalitions play in the success of these efforts.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Respecting the Threat
This paper examines how Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez threatens U.S. interests in Venezuela and the Latin American region. It proposes the U.S. policy toward Venezuela must be changed in order to contain Chavez's current influence and power as well as deter Chavez's ability to threaten U.S. interests in three key areas: democracy, economics and regional security/stability. With regard to the threat to democracy, the paper addresses Chavez's efforts to dismantle checks and balances on the executive while strengthening executive power in the country. In looking at the economic threat, the paper examines Chavez's actions that could affect U.S. access to oil as well as his efforts to attack U.S. trade policies. In the final threat area, the paper examines how Chavez threatens regional stability/security due to his interventionist tactics, lackluster narcoterrorism efforts, military procurement and strategic alliances. The paper also addresses how other regional actors perceive the threat, how the balance of power and influence in the region drives the urgency of the threat and what are the most likely threat courses of action. Finally the paper proposes three policy recommendations for the U.S. to implement in order to more effectively address the Chavez threat. These include taking a pragmatic approach toward specific bilateral relations with Venezuela, working multilaterally with other regional actors and more effectively addressing social and economic inequalities in the region.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
The Virtual State
As is the case with many academic arguments, it is all but impossible to unequivocally prove the existence of the virtual state. That said, the evidence certainly indicates that a new breed of transnational actor is having a profound impact on the policies and behaviors of traditional states as they cope with a rapidly changing world. In reality, as the world changes, states are changing too. Consider the observations of Rosecrance. "The nation-state is becoming a tighter, more vigorous unit capable of sustaining the pressures of worldwide competition and they are downsizing--in function, if not in geographic form."21 "The world has embarked on a progressive emancipation from the land as a determinant of production and power."22 If it is true that states are streamlining by placing less emphasis on the importance of territory, they are in effect obviating one of the key structural components of the traditional state. With this in mind, the rise of a significant, completely borderless political actor, the virtual state, seems quite plausible if not inevitable. In this author's view, they are already among us and are likely to proliferate and grow in strength as the forces of globalization and rapidly advancing technology continue to shape the geopolitical landscape.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Preparing for the Inevitable
Many lessons from the Multinational Force and Observer (MFO) mission to the Sinai and the Multinational Force II (MNFII) mission to Lebanon are relevant for future U.S. peacekeeping operations in Israel and the Occupied Territories (OT). A final peace between Israel and the Palestinians is a critical U.S. national interest and is unlikely to occur without a US-led international peacekeeping force. It is important that the U.S. begin to consider the strategic and operation requirements for this mission. Strategic conditions that assisted the success of the MFO and challenged the MNFII must be considered before US involvement in Israel and the OT. The commitment to the treaty of two viable parties, the reduction of external destabilizing influences, and the resolved leadership of the US are the three essential strategic conditions needed. The operational environment of Israel and the OT more closely resembles that of 1982 Lebanon, with its urban and populated countryside, ethnic, religious, and political factions, and militias, terror organizations, and pronounced foreign influence. The Sinai, on the other hand, presented a much larger area, with few urban areas, sparse population, and no internal divisions. Despite the differing operational environments, the MFO and MNFII still provide relevant operational lessons for Israel and the OT. Critical operational lessons are: the necessity of a clear and achievable mission, selecting an effective organization structure for the force, the importance of a unified and compact command structure, tailoring the force for the specific environment and assigned mission, the need for the force to be able to adapt to changes in the situation, and the benefit of maintaining impartiality in the conduct of the mission.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Russian Foreign Policy for the New Millenium
Russian foreign policy during 2001-2002 revealed an entirely new approach as President Vladimir Putin and his Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, expanded the scope of Russian external relations both in terms of numbers of nations and the depth of the relationships. The preceding administration of Boris Yeltsin had alienated many people both internally and externally and there was much to do to repair the damage. The events of 11 September vaulted the Russians into a position of prominence that Putin and Ivanov could not imagine possible. A fast and firm show of support for the United States by Putin and his promise to assist in the war against terrorism in any way put Moscow at the center of the war against terrorism, both as a regional hegemon and as a U.S. partner.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Toward a More Perfect Union
The international security environment is transforming in the aftermath of the Cold War. Leveraging the trends of globalization, technology proliferation, borderless finance, and communications, "super-empowered angry young men" are able to threaten nation-states as only large armies previously could, while simultaneously emasculating the nation-state's traditional tools of security. Combating these forces requires incorporating the very elements of "globalization" and the "informal society" that empower the threats. It also means embracing and addressing the sources of discontent that breed populations seeking to undermine America's preeminence. America's National Security Strategy recognizes this shifting ground, proposes a broad array of cooperative efforts aimed at addressing the root causes of conflict and terrorism, and thereby links American values of liberty, democracy, human rights, and open markets with national security. Unfortunately, the institutions, which underpin America's national security strategy, vestiges of the Cold War, remain ill equipped for implementing this strategy. Therefore, American must reconstruct its security architecture to reflect the realities of the 21st century international environment. Such an effort begins with a positive, well considered, and consistent message communicated via a magnified, coordinated and comprehensive international public affairs effort. Secondly, supporting international and domestic institutions should be developed or modified to integrate all elements of national power toward a common strategy. Thirdly, the United States must re-allocate financial resources consistent with advancing its stated strategy. Finally, Washington must develop the human resources so critical to engaging convincingly on complicated regional agendas. Constructing a national security architecture consistent with America's security strategy offers the best hope for a stable, secure environment at home and abroad. Failure to do soThis work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Understanding Measures of Effectiveness in Counterinsurgency Operations
Both the National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy recently recognized that insurgency is causing an increased threat to the security of the world. This recognition combined with the fact that the military's counterinsurgency effort in Iraq is the central front on the Global War on Terrorism has caused the military to reorient its capabilities towards defeating the threat of an insurgency. An important piece of this reorientation needs to be focused on an increased understanding of measures of effectiveness and their integration into the operational framework of a counterinsurgency campaign. An examination of the theory, history, and doctrine of counterinsurgency operations is conducted to develop a general framework of an insurgency. An understanding of the general insurgency framework is then used to develop an operational design for counterinsurgency campaigns that applies logical lines of operations that are linked to the strategic end state. This framework makes it possible to develop the theory that to be useful, measures of effectiveness must contain certain characteristics. To be a valuable analytical tool that assists the commander in making decisions, a measure of effectiveness must contain the following characteristics; it must be meaningful, it must be linked to the strategic end state, it must have a strong identifiable relationship between cause and effect, it must be observable, it must be quantifiable, and it must be precise. The better a measure of effectiveness adheres to these characteristics the more valuable a tool it will be for the commander. In addition to these characteristics, an attribute of measures of effectiveness is that they must be correlated to changes in the environment to attain timeliness as the operation progresses. To validate the proposed theory that a measure of effectiveness that adheres to certain characteristics becomes a valuable evaluation tool to determine if counterinsurgency operations are meetingThis work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Wooing the Dark Continent
This monograph evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese foreign policy towards Africa, discusses the history of engagement of the People's Republic of China with the African continent, and examines the implications of this relationship in regards to the United States (U.S.). The monograph examines the opinions of Africans regarding the continent's status as a major resource provider for the 21st century and the associated interest from leading economic powers around the world. Finally with the emergence of Africa Command (AFRICOM), this paper lays out recommendations to ensure a more complete understanding of Chinese intentions in Africa and provides AFRICOM planners with methods and means to compete and compliment Chinese efforts across the continent. This paper takes into account both current arguments regarding China as both a partner and competitor and provides an unbiased framework for working with China and Africa that meets U.S. strategic interests and needs.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Leveraging U.S. Intelligence to Defeat Mexican Drug Trafficking Organization
According to the Mexican daily newspaper Reforma, in 2009 there were 6,567 drug-related homicides in Mexico, with over 2,100 of these killings occurring in the Mexican border town of Ciudad Ju?ƒ?癒rez. Though in many ways this extreme violence has become the face of the drug war in Mexico, it is arguably what is occurring below the surface that is of greater concern to the governments of Mexico and the United States.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
NATO Relations With Ukraine
The two fold purpose of the paper is to discuss the reasons for the current status of relations with Ukraine and to explore ways and topics that could be used to move Ukraine forward in its relations with both the U.S. and NATO.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Defense or Diplomacy? Geographic Combatant Commands
Concerns over issues such as the militarization of foreign policy and current fiscal realities in the United States could lead to decreased relevance, downsizing, and/or dissolution of the Geographic Combatant Command unless the commands are able to redefine their contribution to Phase Zero contributions. In a globalized, increasingly complex security environment, there will be a corresponding increase in diplomacy as a foreign policy tool. Currently, the Department of Defense shoulders the lion's share of the load for 'Phase Zero operations, ' those operations designed to assure or solidify relationships with US friends and allies. This mission clearly overlaps with the responsibilities of the Department of State. Recent congressionally mandated studies cite this imbalance and recommend changes that could affect the future of the Geographic Combatant Command.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
A National Security Strategy for Sweden
National security strategies should entail all instruments of power and not just the military. Furthermore, the strategy needs to identify both threats and opportunities. A national security strategy must consider the long-term if the state concerned shall stand any chance to take appropriate action and try to shape the environment in order to avoid or counter threats, mitigate undesired effects, and benefit from arising opportunities. Strategy development requires predictions of the future. A method well suited to strategy development is trend analysis. Trends are broad enough to capture all overarching patterns of change and do not include the degree of detail and speculation that scenario analysis can contain. Each trend consists of drivers and consequences. The role of strategy is to shape undesired drivers, support desired drivers, mitigate undesired consequences, and take advantage of desired consequences, in accordance with core national interests and the strategic situation of a particular country.The paper begins by identifying four foundational trends: climate change, globalization, energy transformation, and global demographic change. It goes on to describe Swedish core national values and interests, and evaluates the Swedish strategic position in the world. Finally, it develops a suggestion for a Swedish national security strategy focusing on global, regional, and local actions. The paper illustrates a method for small states to develop a national security strategy.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Assessing SOUTHCOM's Role in US Foreign Policy in Latin America
The last decade has experienced an increased role of the military in shaping and implementing US foreign policy in Latin America as the focus shifted seamlessly from fighting communism to combating drug trafficking and now prosecuting the war on terror. This paper argues that the armed forces dominate relations between the US and Latin American nations because the Pentagon has the largest official presence in the western hemisphere; hence displacing foreign affairs organizations traditionally chartered to conduct diplomacy, perform development assistance and foster understanding. However, this bleeding of civilian responsibilities to the military weakens the Secretary of State's ability to successfully conduct US relations with foreign countries and undermines the Secretary of Defense's focus on war fighting, as military solutions gain prominence over diplomacy. It cautions American leaders to understand the implications of empowering the armed forces of nascent democracies and the consequences of encouraging law enforcement roles for the military to address public order challenges. The analysis reveals the need for a more balanced foreign policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean, which demands the enhancement of civilian agencies and programs by boosting their funding to bring those levels of engagement on par with and complement humanitarian assistance, training and other foreign aid already provided by the military. Unity of effort between the State Department and the Pentagon will strengthen interagency solutions by combining the diplomatic, information, military and economic instruments of national power. In the long run, an integrated approach that addresses the symptoms as well as the causes of the many problems that afflict our neighbors to the south should not only benefit Latin American and Caribbean nations; but also improve US security and mutual regional interests.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Hard Power and Soft Power
Power is one of the more contestable concepts in political theory. In recent decades, scholars and commentators have chosen to distinguish between two kinds of power, "hard" and "soft." The former is achieved through military threat or use, and by means of economic menace or reward. The latter is the ability to have influence by co-opting others to share some of one's values and, as a consequence, to share some key elements on one's agenda for international order and security. Whereas hard power obliges its addressees to consider their interests in terms mainly of calculable costs and benefits, soft power works through the persuasive potency of ideas that foreigners find attractive. It is highly desirable if much of the world external to America wants, or can be brought to want, a great deal of what America happens to favor also. Coalitions of the genuinely willing have to be vastly superior to the alternatives.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Evolution of China's Nuclear Capability
The strategic arms control process to reduce nuclear weapons and contain the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is a center piece of the United States arms control policy. To be effective in arms control negotiations with the Chinese, the United States must understand China's past experience and perspectives regarding nuclear weapons. What drove the Chinese to develop nuclear weapons? What kind of force structure was required? How many? How would they deploy and employ these weapons? This paper will address these questions and argue the United States is negotiating arms control policies with the Chinese without a clear understanding of the Chinese perspectives, interests, and concerns.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Why Efforts to Centralize the US Intelligence Community Fail
Prior to World War II, the formal collection and exploitation of foreign intelligence in the United States fell almost exclusively in the domain of the military. The attack on Pearl Harbor and other events during that war created a growing consensus that the nation required a central authority to manage national intelligence pertinent to multiple departments of the government. In response, the national security act of 1947 created the central intelligence agency and the position of director of central intelligence. Over the next half-century, numerous commissions and panels found neither the agency nor the director ever wielded effective control over the diverse and growing intelligence community. In response to such findings, presidents issued National Security Council directives and executive orders and congress signed multiple bills to reinforce the CIA and DCI's authority over the intelligence community, but the problems of decentralization persist. The terrorist attack of 9/11 provided sufficient impetus to make the first significant structural changes to the failed us intelligence community since 1947. To evaluate the prospects of the national intelligence reform act of 2004 to establish effective central control over the community it is helpful to identify the factors that frustrated previous reform efforts.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Anticipating Failure
"In the absence of significant internal reform, Pakistan faces a host of internal problems and external tensions that make the emergence of a failed, radical Islamist, nuclear-armed state a possible worst case scenario within 10 to 15 years. This potential emergence of a rogue Pakistan threatens several vital US interests. The U.S. relies on a stable, moderate Pakistan as a key partner in US counter-terrorism efforts and is a key player in maintaining stability in the highly volatile region. In addition, a failed Pakistan threatens nuclear non-proliferation efforts, promises a destabilizing regional nuclear arms race, and increases the chances of nuclear weapons or materials falling into the hands of radical Islamists with an expressed desire to both acquire and use WMD. While US policy should aim to prevent this catastrophe, this paper examines how US strategy must also prepare for a rogue Pakistan in the event prevention fails. This paper examines the potency of the Pakistans trend towards failure, the significance of a failed Pakistan to US interests in the region, and assesses US regional policy options in preparing for its failure. This assessment concludes that military options offer little utility in countering this threat except in rare and unlikely circumstances, and that limits to US power will lead to a US strategy of management and containment of a rogue Pakistan aimed at minimizing the effects of its failure. As a result, US regional policy in preparing for a possible failed Pakistani state should focus on five areas: first, increasing nuclear safety and security in the region; second, increasing our diplomatic and economic development efforts and influence in the region to include a strong alliance with India and diplomatic engagement with Iran; third, accelerating stabilization and nation building efforts in Afghanistan; and fourth, synchronizing all of our efforts by expanding our "soft" instrument of power. "This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
