Modeling Short-Term Interest Rate Spreads in the Euro Money Market
In the framework of a new money-market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank (ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. subprime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second half of 2007. This is done in two steps. Firstly, the long-term behavior of interest rates with one-week maturity is investigated by testing for cobreaking and for homogeneity of spreads against the minimum bid rate (MBR, the key policy rate). These tests capture the idea that successful steering of very short-term interest rates is inconsistent with the existence of more than one common trend driving the one-week interest rates and/or with nonstationarity of the spreads among interest rates of the same maturity (or measured against the MBR). Secondly, the impact of several shocks to the spreads (e.g., interest rate expectations, volumes of open-market operations, interest rate volatility, policy interventions, and credit risk) is assessed by jointly modeling their behavior. We show that after August 2007, euro-area commercial banks started paying a premium to participate in the ECB liquidity auctions. This puzzling phenomenon can be understood by the interplay between, on the one hand, adverse selection in the interbank market and, on the other hand, the broad range of collateral accepted by the ECB. We also show that after August 2007, the ECB steered the "risk-free" rate close to the policy rate, but has not fully offset the impact of the credit events on other money-market rates.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
An Analysis of the Air Force Working Capital Fund's Performance and the Pricing Strategy of the Materiel Support Division
The Air Force Working Capital Fund (AFWCF), a revolving fund established to create a more business-like environment between the Air Force and its customers, is comprised of several divisions providing depot level repairs, supplies and inventory, information technology solutions and transportation services to military customers. Since its establishment, the AFWCF has been the source of much criticism due to its inability to meet its primary goal of operating on a break-even basis. Ideally, the Fund will generate enough revenue from the sale of goods or services to cover its expenses and break-even. Instead, there is either a surplus that must be reintroduced into the AFWCF or, as most often the case, a deficit occurs. Due to regulatory requirements, the Fund must recoup these lost monies in a subsequent year. This profoundly affects the ability to accurately build the budget and reach the break-even point. This research analyzes the past performance of the AFWCF and identifies which areas are key drivers in preventing the AFWCF from meeting this goal. Lastly, the pricing strategy of the Materiel Support Division was evaluated based on commercial best practices to determine if its pricing schema lends itself to meeting the goals of the AFWCF.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Over the past several years, substantial research effort has gone into measuring the efficiency of financial institutions. Many studies have found that inefficiencies are quite large, on the order of 20 percent or more of total banking industry costs and about half of the industry's potential profits. There is no consensus on the sources of the differences in measured efficiency. This paper examines several possible sources, including differences in efficiency concept, measurement method, and a number of bank, market, and regulatory characteristics. We review the extant literature and provide new evidence using data on U.S. banks over the period 1990-95.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Financial Holding Companies Under the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Over the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded. Today, the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas: conducting the nation's monetary policy, supervising and regulating banking institutions, maintaining the stability of the financial system, and providing financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions. Every year The Federal Reserve System publishes a variety of reports on topics such as: Profitability of Credit Card Operations, Fees and Services of Depository Institutions, the Presidential $1 Coin Program, and Availability of Credit to Small Businesses. This is one of those reports.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Competitive Military Recruiting
The U.S. military's system of duplicative and competitive active duty recruiting contributes to and perpetuates the failure of DOD-wide recruiting efforts. Given the significant changes in the U.S. economy, and the relinquishment of market-share by the military services associated with the military drawdown of the 1990s, the military's present recruiting strategy will no longer fulfill DOD's personnel readiness requirements. The Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine recruiting forces have tried in vain to increase individual service market-share and the DOD-wide share within the greater employment market. Single-service efforts ostensibly aimed at increasing service market share predominantly impact upon other military services. Current marketing strategies and operations that are redundant and inefficient often cost the DOD more than the value gained in enlistment production increases. Small unit sales tactics and recruiting procedures encourage additional waste through the duplication of recruiting effort and negative military advertising. This monograph concludes that DOD must modify the flawed recruiting strategy if it is to avoid the continuous erosion of personnel readiness into the future. Development and adoption of DOD-wide marketing processes would enhance recruiting force efficiency through effective distribution. The management of prospecting and telemarketing efforts must be centralized and commercialized to enhance recruiter productivity and minimize redundant or high pressure prospecting techniques. Finally, Parallel and competitive recruiting organizations must consolidate to eliminate internal friction. Military readiness is the bill-payer for the inefficient and internally destructive recruiting systems allowed for under Title 10. The Secretary of Defense must exercise his authority under that same body of law to eliminate the destructive competition resident in the parallel recruiting systems of the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
An Analysis of the Impact of Defense Acquisition Reforms and External Factors On Schedule Growth of Defense Weapon Systems
The growth in the acquisition cycle time of large defense systems from what was planned (i.e., schedule growth) creates several issues for defense acquisition managers and policy makers. These issues include increased likelihoods of cancellations, changes in requirements, and delays in the fielding of improved combat capabilities and replacements for legacy systems, which have resulted in further cost and schedule growth. As a result, Congress, the DoD, and the individual military services implemented several major reforms to address the cost and schedule growth of weapon systems. This research presents an empirical model of schedule growth to evaluate the impact of acquisition reform efforts, defense budget changes, unexpected inflation, and major contingency operations (war) on schedule growth of major weapon systems. A fixed-effects panel regression model was utilized to describe the schedule performance (using earned value data) of the major weapon system programs managed by the Army, Air Force, and Navy from 1980 to 2002. This research found that unexpected inflation results in increased schedule growth.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
A key variable for the conduct of monetary policy is the natural rate of interest -- the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential and stable inflation. Economic theory implies that the natural rate of interest varies over time and depends on the trend growth rate of output. In this paper we apply the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, potential output, and the trend growth rate, and examine the empirical relationship between these estimated unobserved series. We find substantial variation in the natural rate of interest over the past four decades in the United States. Our natural rate estimates vary about one-for-one with changes in the trend growth rate. We show that policymakers' mismeasurement of the natural rate of interest can cause a significant deterioration in macroeconomic stabilization.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
This paper presents evidence that consumers underreact to taxes that are not salient and characterizes the welfare consequences of tax policies when agents make such optimization errors. The empirical evidence is based on two complementary strategies. First, we conducted an experiment at a grocery store posting tax inclusive prices for 750 products subject to sales tax for a three week period. Scanner data show that this intervention reduced demand for the treated products by 8 percent. Second, we find that state-level increases in excise taxes (which are included in posted prices) reduce alcohol consumption significantly more than increases in sales taxes (which are added at the register and are hence less salient). We develop simple, empirically implementable formulas for the incidence and efficiency costs of taxation that account for salience effects as well as other optimization errors. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the formulas imply that the economic incidence of a tax depends on its statutory incidence and that a tax can create deadweight loss even if it induces no change in demand. Our method of welfare analysis yields robust results because it does not require specification of a positive theory for why agents fail to optimize with respect to tax policies.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Understanding and Improving Depot Level Reparable Pricing for Air Force Systems
The Air Force has been under enormous pressure to reduce depot maintenance costs for weapon and support systems. To do this efficiently and effectively, requires a thorough knowledge of the cost of repairs to the component level. This knowledge enables the Air Force to: make sound judgments with respect to repair sourcing, determine the cost effectiveness of repair processes, justify continued expenditures for organic repair, and produce accurate comparative data. While the Air Force has made some progress in improving its capabilities in this area, it has yet to fully implement necessary procedural and system reforms.The Air Force's ability to trace costs to individual systems and components is extremely limited due to the outmoded costing systems in use at its Air Logistics Centers. This paper investigates the difficulties in determining the actual costs of performing repairs on systems and components, and makes recommendations on methods, procedures, and systems to improve the accuracy of repair costing.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
An Analysis of the Air Force Working Capital Fund's Performance and the Pricing Strategy of the Materiel Support Division
The Air Force Working Capital Fund (AFWCF), a revolving fund established to create a more business-like environment between the Air Force and its customers, is comprised of several divisions providing depot level repairs, supplies and inventory, information technology solutions and transportation services to military customers. Since its establishment, the AFWCF has been the source of much criticism due to its inability to meet its primary goal of operating on a break-even basis. Ideally, the Fund will generate enough revenue from the sale of goods or services to cover its expenses and break-even. Instead, there is either a surplus that must be reintroduced into the AFWCF or, as most often the case, a deficit occurs. Due to regulatory requirements, the Fund must recoup these lost monies in a subsequent year. This profoundly affects the ability to accurately build the budget and reach the break-even point. This research analyzes the past performance of the AFWCF and identifies which areas are key drivers in preventing the AFWCF from meeting this goal. Lastly, the pricing strategy of the Materiel Support Division was evaluated based on commercial best practices to determine if its pricing schema lends itself to meeting the goals of the AFWCF.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Amending The Revenue Act Of 1918
This volume contains the hearings before the Committee on Finance of the United States Senate during the Sixty-Sixth Congress, Second Session, regarding the proposed amendments to the 'Revenue Act of 1918'. It documents the discussions and testimonies related to H.R. 14197 and H.R. 14198, offering a detailed look into the legislative process concerning taxation during this period. Providing valuable insights into the economic considerations and policy debates of the time, this historical record is essential for researchers, economists, and anyone interested in understanding the evolution of tax law in the United States.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
An Analysis of Total System Performance Responsibility in Air Force Acquisitions
This research examined how well the goals and objectives of total system performance responsibility (TSPR) are being met. The research was sparked by the rise of implementing TSPR as an element of an acquisition strategy in many weapon and information systems. Acquisition professionals use TSPR to decrease total ownership cost, improve system performance, and optimize public-private support capabilities while maintaining operational flexibility. However, while the number of programs that use or plan to implement TSPR or some form of contractor support and sustainment continues to increase, little research has been conducted concerning the effectiveness of TSPR as an element of an acquisition strategy. TSPR transfers performance responsibility and risk to the contractor by giving the contractor more discretion over design, configuration, and requirements solutions. The contractor is also given performance responsibility over the fielded system. The government retains program management as well as budget and contracting functions. Under TSPR the roles and relationship between government and contractor change from oversight to insight. Research findings indicate that management should carefully consider the appropriateness of TSPR for a given program. TSPR has the potential to be an effective element of an acquisition strategy, but requires contractor innovation, change management, successful long-term partnerships based on mutually aligned goals and consensus among government personnel concerning core activities.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
This paper empirically examines the relation between the Treasury term structure and spreads of investment grade corporate bond yields over Treasuries. I find that noncallable bond yield spreads fall when the level of the Treasury term structure rises. The extent of this decline depends on the initial credit quality of the bond; the decline is small for Aaa-rated bonds and large for Baa-rated bonds. The role of the business cycle in generating this pattern is explored, as is the link between yield spreads and default risk. I also argue that yield spreads based on commonly-used bond yield indexes are contaminated in two important ways. The first is that they are ``refreshed'' indexes, which hold credit ratings constant over time; the second is that they usually are constructed with both callable and noncallable bonds. The impact of both of these problems is examined.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Risk Analysis in Finance and Insurance
Risk Analysis in Finance and Insurance, Third Edition presents an accessible yet comprehensive introduction to the main concepts and methods that transform risk management into a quantitative science. Considering the interdisciplinary nature of risk analysis, the author discusses many important ideas from stochastic analysis, mathematical finance and actuarial science in a simplified manner. He explores the interconnections among these disciplines and encourages readers toward further study of the subject. This edition continues to study risks associated with financial and insurance contracts, using an approach that estimates the value of future payments based on current financial, insurance, and other information.Features of the third edition 12 chapters instead of 8 of the 2nd editions. Two new chapters on Wiener process as a base for financial market modeling. Option pricing in the Bachelier model, the model of Black and Scholes, the Gram-Charlier model. American options and their pricing in the Black-Scholes model Several new notions, topics and results that are not reflected yet in other textbooks, and even in monographs (Binomial model with constraints, detailed exposition of quantile hedging technique, Conditional Value at Risk, Range of Value at Risk, applications to equity-linked life insurance) Can be regarded as a self-contained issue of courses on Mathematical Finance, Actuarial Science and Risk Management Replete with new exercises, problems, hints and solutions
Staff Studies
The staff members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and of the Federal Reserve Banks undertake studies that cover a wide range of economic and financial subjects. From time to time the studies that are of general interest are published in the Staff Studies series and summarized in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. The analyses and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not necessarily indicate concurrence by the Board of Governors, by the Federal Reserve Banks, or by members of their staffs.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Liquidity, Moral Hazard, and Interbank Market Collapse
This paper proposes a framework to analyze the functioning of the interbank liquidity market and the occurrence of liquidity crises. The model relies on three key assumptions: (i) ex ante investment in liquid assets is not verifiable - it cannot be contracted upon, (ii) banks face moral hazard when confronted with liquidity shocks - unobservable effort can help overcome the shock, and (iii) liquidity shocks are private information - they cannot be diversified away. Under these assumptions, the aggregate volume of capital invested in liquid assets is shown to exert a positive externality on individual decisions to hoard liquid assets. Due to this property, the collapse of the interbank market for liquidity is an equilibrium. Moreover, such an equilibrium is more likely when the individual probability of the liquidity shock is lower. Banks may therefore provision too few liquid assets compared with the social optimum.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Statistics on Banking, 1934-1996
The Federal Reserve Archival System for Economic Research (FRASER) started in 2004 as a data preservation and accessibility project of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRASER's mission is to safeguard and provide easy access to the nation's economic history-particularly the history of the Federal Reserve System-through digitization of documents related to the U.S. financial system. FRASER preserves and provides access to economic and banking data and policy documents. To this end, various types of documents have been digitized, including: publications of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, publications of District Federal Reserve Banks, states and speeches of Federal Reserve policymakers, archival materials of Federal Reserve policymakers, government data publications, statistical releases, books and Congressional hearings.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
When Everyone Runs for the Exit
The dangers of shouting "fire" in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that securitize mortgages and issue mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In addition, the GSEs are active participants in the secondary mortgage market on behalf of their own investment portfolios. Because these portfolios have grown quite large, portfolio purchases (in addition to MBS issuance) are often thought to be an important force in the mortgage market. Using monthly data from 1993 to 2005 we estimate a VAR model of the relationship between GSE secondary market activities and mortgage interest rate spreads. We find that GSE portfolio purchases have no significant effects on either primary or secondary mortgage rate spreads. Further, we examine GSE activities and mortgage rate spreads in the wake of the 1998 debt crisis, and find that GSE portfolio purchases did little to affect interest rates paid by new mortgage borrowers. This empirical finding is robust to alternative identification assumptions and to alternative model and variable specifications.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
In this paper, we empirically examine the portfolio-rebalancing effects stemming from the policy of "quantitative monetary easing" recently undertaken by the Bank of Japan when the nominal short-term interest rate was virtually at zero. Portfolio-rebalancing effects resulting from the open market purchase of long-term government bonds under this policy have been statistically significant. Our results also show that the portfolio-rebalancing effects were beneficial in that they reduced risk premiums on assets with counter-cyclical returns, such as government and high-grade corporate bonds. But, they may have generated the adverse effects of increasing risk premiums on assets with pro-cyclical returns, such as equities and low-grade corporate bonds. These results are consistent with a CAPM framework in which business-cycle risk importantly affects risk premiums. Our estimates capture only some of the effects of quantitative easing and thus do not imply that the complete set of effects were adverse on net for Japan's economy. However, our analysis counsels caution in accepting the view that, ceteris paribus, a massive large-scale purchase of long-term government bonds by a central bank provides unambiguously positive net benefits to financial markets at zero short-term interest rates.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
In this paper, we empirically examine the portfolio-rebalancing effects stemming from the policy of "quantitative monetary easing" recently undertaken by the Bank of Japan when the nominal short-term interest rate was virtually at zero. Portfolio-rebalancing effects resulting from the open market purchase of long-term government bonds under this policy have been statistically significant. Our results also show that the portfolio-rebalancing effects were beneficial in that they reduced risk premiums on assets with counter-cyclical returns, such as government and high-grade corporate bonds. But, they may have generated the adverse effects of increasing risk premiums on assets with pro-cyclical returns, such as equities and low-grade corporate bonds. These results are consistent with a CAPM framework in which business-cycle risk importantly affects risk premiums. Our estimates capture only some of the effects of quantitative easing and thus do not imply that the complete set of effects were adverse on net for Japan's economy. However, our analysis counsels caution in accepting the view that, ceteris paribus, a massive large-scale purchase of long-term government bonds by a central bank provides unambiguously positive net benefits to financial markets at zero short-term interest rates.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Fair Credit Reporting Act Dispute Process
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Over the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded. Today, the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas: conducting the nation's monetary policy, supervising and regulating banking institutions, maintaining the stability of the financial system, and providing financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions. Every year The Federal Reserve System publishes a variety of reports on topics such as: Profitability of Credit Card Operations, Fees and Services of Depository Institutions, the Presidential $1 Coin Program, and Availability of Credit to Small Businesses. This is one of those reports.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
The Management of Energy Savings Performance Contracts
Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPCs) originated to accomplish several objectives: (1) to meet energy efficiency goals mandated by executive orders and energy policies; (2) to improve federal government facilities using funds allocated for utility bills; and (3) to receive repayment of expenditures through energy savings reflected in reduced utility bills. In ESPCs, the contractor guarantees savings to the federal government agency. 10 CFR 436 limits the time necessary for payback. However, this regulation and others were written prior to the deregulation of utility companies. This theory is based on the underlying premise that the contractor payback is a direct result of the energy savings. The population of study is all of the Air Force ESPCs. The sampling frame used will be the ESPCs and their task orders (TOs) listed in the Air Force Civil Engineering Support Agency (AFCESA) database. The primary unit of analysis will be the individual task order. Data will be collected from interviews, observations, conferences, archives, and other task order related documents. Using case study methodology, contract financial data, energy rates, contract decision memorandums, contract clauses and statements of work, observation, open interviews, and other relevant meetings and materials will be evaluated to determine whether deregulation has an effect on contractor payback and what the effect entails.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Stress Testing Credit Risk
We study government policies designed This paper reviews the quantitative methods developed at selected authorities for stress testing credit risk, focusing in particular on the methods used to link macroeconomic drivers of stress with bank-specific measures of credit risk (macro stress test). Authorities with a mandate for financial stability are particularly interested in quantifying the macro-to-micro linkages and have developed specific modeling expertise in this field. Stress testing credit risk is also an essential element of the Basel II framework, and some stress-testing requirements of Basel II are formulated by making explicit reference to the economic cycle. The paper highlights recent developments in macro stress testing and details a number of methodological challenges that may be useful for supervisors in their review process of banks' models as required by Basel II. It also contributes to the ongoing macroprudential research efforts to integrate macroeconomic oversight and prudential supervision, for early detection of key vulnerabilities and assessment of macro-financial linkages.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
The New DOD Space Management Process
The new DOD space management process tried to improve on past performance, but still suffers from many inefficiencies. Congress dictated a solution of a space czar without focusing on the more generic problem of service roles and missions. The Commission on Roles and Missions had to struggle with military service turf battles and bureaucratic resistance to change in creating a compromise solution to Congress' requirement. The three new positions, the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Space, the DOD Space Architect and the Joint Space Management Board, inject additional levels of bureaucracy into the decision-making process for the military space effort. Inefficiencies include lengthened chains of command, increased oversight and review and delays in decision-making. The new process does not improve the process when changes are driven from outside the military--by Congress or by other government agencies.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Defense Acquisition Reform, 1960 to 2009
From 1960 through 2009 there were more than twenty-seven major studies of defense acquisition commissioned by presidents, Congress, and secretaries of defense, government agencies, studies and analyses organizations, and universities. Numerous other noteworthy studies of defense acquisition have been conducted and published by the General Accountability Office during the same period. Much to the surprise of many, the reform studies over the forty-nine-year period arrived at most of the same findings and made similar recommendations. But political will to make the changes, combined with internal dynamics resistant to change, led to only minor improvements. The problems of schedule slippages, cost growth, and technical performance shortfalls on defense acquisition programs have remained much the same throughout this period. Defense Acquisition Reform, 1960 to 2009: An Elusive Goal provides historical and analytical accounts of the defense acquisition process for major weapons systems in order to identify long-term trends, insights, and observations that could provide perspective and context to assist current defense decision makers, acquisition officials, and the acquisition schoolhouse.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
The primary mission of the 12 cooperatively owned Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) is to provide their members financial products and services to assist and enhance member housing finance. In this paper, we consider the role of the FHLBs' traditional product--"advances," or collateralized loans to members--in stabilizing commercial bank members' residential mortgage lending activities.Our theoretical model shows that using membership criteria (such as a minimum of 10 percent of the portfolio being in mortgage-related assets) or using mortgage-related assets as collateral does not ensure that FHLB advances will be put to use for stabilizing members' financing of housing. Indeed, our model demonstrates that advances--a relatively low cost managed liability--are most likely to influence lending only when such liabilities are used to finance "relationship" loans (i.e., loans to bank-dependent borrowers) that will be held on a bank's balance sheet and are least likely to influence lending for loans where the loan rate is heavily influenced by securitization activities, like mortgages.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Reverse mortgages allow elderly homeowners to tap into their housing wealth without having to sell or move out of their homes. However, very few eligible homeowners have used reverse mortgages to achieve consumption smoothing until recently when the reverse mortgage market in the United States witnessed substantial growth. This paper examines 1989-2007 loan-level reverse mortgage data and presents a number of findings. First, I show that recent reverse mortgage borrowers are significantly different from earlier borrowers in many respects. Second, I find that borrowers who take the line-of-credit payment plan, single male borrowers, and borrowers with higher house values exit their homes sooner than other reverse mortgage borrowers. Third, I combine the reverse mortgage data with county-level house price data to show that elderly homeowners are more likely to purchase reverse mortgages when the local housing market is at its peak. This finding suggests that the 2000-05 housing market boom may be partially responsible for the rapid growth of reverse mortgage markets. Lastly, I show that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage limits, which cap the amount of housing wealth that an eligible homeowner can borrow against, have no effect on the demand for reverse mortgages. The findings have important implications to both policy-making and the economics of housing and aging.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
ABC of the Federal Reserve System
Subtitle: Why the Federal Reserve System was called into being, the main features of its organization, and how it works. The author was a professor of economics at Princeton, and a firm advocate of the gold standard. Between 1922 and 1933, he served as an adviser to foreign governments, helping them establish and maintain strong currencies. His papers are available if you would like to know more about him and his career.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Financial Collapse of the Penn Central Company
The Federal Reserve Archival System for Economic Research (FRASER) started in 2004 as a data preservation and accessibility project of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRASER's mission is to safeguard and provide easy access to the nation's economic history-particularly the history of the Federal Reserve System-through digitization of documents related to the U.S. financial system. FRASER preserves and provides access to economic and banking data and policy documents. To this end, various types of documents have been digitized, including: publications of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, publications of District Federal Reserve Banks, states and speeches of Federal Reserve policymakers, archival materials of Federal Reserve policymakers, government data publications, statistical releases, books and Congressional hearings.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Streamlining the Acquistion Process
Post-cold war, post-9/11, radically evolving threats, emerging technologies, the information explosion, and a seemingly endless supply of new requirements all have contributed to the requisite for acquisition reform. A great deal of time and attention has been spent on "tweaking" Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition processes and "reviewing" myriad lessons learned, yet acquisition programs are continually out of money, behind schedule and seemingly out of touch with warfighter requirements. This research explores possible answers, and provides actionable recommendations, for strategic reform that directly benefits the warfighter.Accordingly, primary consideration is given to place the user, Combatant Commands, squarely in a demand function, a function that does not effectively exist today. Overall recommendations are based upon an incentive structure that works; that of the free marketplace. A marketplace effectively incorporates the functions of demand, supply and oversight. This study is different for three reasons. First, recommended action illustrates a synchronized timeline to field weapon systems that are initiated on behalf of the user, not a timeline that is behest of the supplying provider. Second, it offers solutions to fix part of DoD's current funding mechanism and reduce costs by architecting optimized solutions on behalf of the future joint warfighter, not on the parochialism of a military service. The Under Secretary of Defense provides oversight while establishing capability portfolio directors that ensure architected solutions. Finally, the analysis offers a way forward to regain acquisition superiority through workforce transformation.This essay ties space acquisition to the greater whole of acquisition. Three reasons, first, Congress has little faith in DoD's ability to manage them; space programs have been plagued with issues. Second, space acquisition is very expensive, unforgiving, and a growing business; it provides a backdrop for acquirThis work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
I test whether corporate governance is ineffective in emerging markets by estimating the link between CEO turnover and firm performance for over 1,200 firms in eight emerging markets. I find two main results. First, CEOs of emerging market firms are more likely to lose their jobs when their firm's performance is poor, suggesting that corporate governance is not ineffective in emerging markets. Second, for the subset of firms with a large domestic shareholder, there is no link between CEO turnover and firm performance. For this subset of emerging market firms, corporate governance appears to be ineffective.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Stress Testing Credit Risk
We study government policies designed This paper reviews the quantitative methods developed at selected authorities for stress testing credit risk, focusing in particular on the methods used to link macroeconomic drivers of stress with bank-specific measures of credit risk (macro stress test). Authorities with a mandate for financial stability are particularly interested in quantifying the macro-to-micro linkages and have developed specific modeling expertise in this field. Stress testing credit risk is also an essential element of the Basel II framework, and some stress-testing requirements of Basel II are formulated by making explicit reference to the economic cycle. The paper highlights recent developments in macro stress testing and details a number of methodological challenges that may be useful for supervisors in their review process of banks' models as required by Basel II. It also contributes to the ongoing macroprudential research efforts to integrate macroeconomic oversight and prudential supervision, for early detection of key vulnerabilities and assessment of macro-financial linkages.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
A Proposed Military Construction Facility Investment Model
The fiscal year (FY)1999 and FY2000 National Defense Authorization Acts (NDAA) amended Title 10 USC, Section 17, and directed the secretary of defense to report annually on the capability of installations and facilities to provide support to forces in the conduct of their missions. This has come to be known as the Installations' Readiness Report (IRR). The Air Force's IRR links facility sustainment, restoration, and modernization (SRM) requirements, with the impact on the installation's ability to support the mission associated with the particular facility class. The Air Force's centralized military construction (MILCON) program model used to program major facility requirements does not directly target facility investment in the "deficient" facility classes defined in the Installations' Readiness Report. This research combined the system dynamics and value-focused thinking methodologies together to develop a proposed MILCON model that might better target funding of deficient facility class requirements. The results from a system dynamics analysis of the existing MILCON model were used to better understand the MILCON program and leverage management policies in a proposed MILCON model. The proposed MILCON model was then developed using a gold standard value-focused thinking approach. The Air Force's goals and objectives for the MILCON program were derived from a literature review of key doctrine, policies, and guidance. The proposed model was also evaluated to identify relevant favorable or unfavorable behavior trends in eliminating deficient facility class requirements. The proposed model provides a significant short and long-term improvement over the existing model in targeting and eliminating deficient facility class requirements. The model demonstrates a 20 percent improvement in targeting these facility requirements in FY2004 and a long-term trend towards completely eliminating these requirements.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Contractors on the Battlefield
Contracting for services is not new. Throughout the history of warfare, armies used the services of non-military personnel or civilians to accomplish logistical functions to maintain the force and support combat operations. Colonial forces in the Revolutionary war relied on contracted teamsters for services at Valley Forge. United States forces have continued to rely on contractors to provide support from the Revolutionary War to the Gulf War. In Bosnia, contractors provided fifty-two types of support - from LifeCycle?(R) treadmills to helicopter maintenance by Bell and Boeing. Continued budgetary pressure, however, will force the military to further outsource services to industry. The logistics focus is not merely the amassing and storage of material and equipment, but ultimately the timely and balanced arrival of resources to the forces in need. Using responsiveness, flexibility, and economy as criteria to determine the level of risk; this paper answers if the United States Army's theater services contracting path presents unacceptable risk to successful operations. The author argues that the United States military (specifically the Army) due to budgetary pressure, has accepted an unreasonable risk with its policy towards contractors on the battlefield. The recommendations include numerous methods to mitigate risk. These recommendations include changes in leadership, planning, training and doctrine. Training and doctrine for contractors on the battlefield form the framework for the leadership through anticipatory planning to develop "habitual relationships" between contractor and soldier, solidifying the bond ensuring successful mission accomplishment.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Department of Defense
In support of senior leadership emphasis on improving early systems engineering and analysis, the Enterprise Requirements and Acquisition Model(ERAM) is a quantitative discrete-event process simulation model that accounts for activities from the identification of a desired space capability early in the JCIDS process through Milestone C of the acquisition system resulting in a probabilistic schedule distribution for a given concept. This model of the DoD's space capability development process will provide valuable decision making information for Concept Characterization and Technical Descriptions referenced during Analysis of Alternatives. The research focused on identifying activities, assigning historical triangular distributions and probabilities at each decision point. Data was collected through analysis of applicable policy, instructions, and journal articles as well as interviews with subject matter experts from the Air Staff, Air Force Space Command and the Space and Missile Systems Center.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
The Impact of the Packard Commission's Recommendations on Reducing Cost Overruns in Major Defense Acquisitions Programs
The phenomenon of cost overruns in Department of Defense acquisitionprograms has been a problem for decades. In fact, regulations to controldefense procurements extend as far back as the 1940's. However, thesepolicies have accomplished little in controlling or reducing the problem. A 1993Rand Corporation study discussed the extent of cost growth in the DoD andindicated that cost growth has fluctuated around 20 percent since the mid 1960'sand that little improvement has occurred over time (Drezner and others, 1993:2).Other research indicates that the average cost overrun on DoD acquisitioncontracts is approximately 40 percent (Gansler, 1989:4). However onemeasures the unplanned cost increases (growth or overruns to be explainedlater in this thesis) is academic; the magnitude of the problem persists and isreadily seen as 20 to 40 percent can represent a notable loss.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Informal Influences in the Process of IDIQ Contractor Selection for Task Award
The selection of a contractor for task award using the IDIQ contract often involves dynamics and relationships that are difficult to understand. There are unanswered questions that relate to how government agents define "best value" to the government. The selection decisions often differ between government agents. The government streamlined the acquisition process by creating the multiple award IDIQ contract. Government agents are relied upon to make sound business judgments in determining which contractor represents the best value to the government. Informal influences can impact the determination of the final selection of a contractor. This thesis attempts to create a better conceptual framework for the informal influences that affect the dynamic selection process of contractors for task award. The research consisted of interviews with members of government agencies that routinely make IDIQ contract task awards. Results indicate that informal, or soft, factors play a large role in determining which contractor will be awarded a task. The most influential factors that affect task award are identified and discussed in depth. The research determined that some marketing processes can be totally ineffective or even counterproductive at times. The results also show that formal rating systems are often replaced by informal peer networks. Existing research on selection processes in the private sector proved comparable to processes used at the government agencies participating in this study.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that securitize mortgages and issue mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In addition, the GSEs are active participants in the secondary mortgage market on behalf of their own investment portfolios. Because these portfolios have grown quite large, portfolio purchases (in addition to MBS issuance) are often thought to be an important force in the mortgage market. Using monthly data from 1993 to 2005 we estimate a VAR model of the relationship between GSE secondary market activities and mortgage interest rate spreads. We find that GSE portfolio purchases have no significant effects on either primary or secondary mortgage rate spreads. Further, we examine GSE activities and mortgage rate spreads in the wake of the 1998 debt crisis, and find that GSE portfolio purchases did little to affect interest rates paid by new mortgage borrowers. This empirical finding is robust to alternative identification assumptions and to alternative model and variable specifications.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Formative Period of the Federal Reserve System, During the World Crisis
The Federal Reserve Archival System for Economic Research (FRASER) started in 2004 as a data preservation and accessibility project of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRASER's mission is to safeguard and provide easy access to the nation's economic history-particularly the history of the Federal Reserve System-through digitization of documents related to the U.S. financial system. FRASER preserves and provides access to economic and banking data and policy documents. To this end, various types of documents have been digitized, including: publications of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, publications of District Federal Reserve Banks, states and speeches of Federal Reserve policymakers, archival materials of Federal Reserve policymakers, government data publications, statistical releases, books and Congressional hearings.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
This paper employs extensive information on bank deposit rates and county migration patterns to test for pricing relationships implied by the existence of switching costs. While these relationships are derived formally, the intuition for them can be readily stated. Because some areas experience more in-migration than others, banks, in addressing the trade-off between attracting new customers and exploiting old ones, offer higher deposit rates in areas (and at times) experiencing more in-migration. Further, because out-migration implies that on average a locked-in customer will not be with the bank as many periods, greater out-migration should change the bank's assessment of this trade-off such that the bank will offer lower deposit rates in areas (and during periods) exhibiting greater out-migration, all else equal. Also, because this effect of out-migration logically depends on the existence and extent of in-migration, an interaction effect is implied. Evidence strongly supporting these implied relationships is reported. Other tests of the implications of switching costs in the banking industry are also conducted.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
When Everyone Runs for the Exit
The dangers of shouting "fire" in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Balancing Government Risks With Contractor Incentives in Performance-Based Logistics Contracts
The use of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) as a sustainment strategy for weapon systems has been mandated by the Department of Defense (DoD) and largely embraced by acquisition and contracting professionals in both government and private industry. Despite its apparent success, there is an inherent conflict that DoD implementers of PBL often face: the PBL goal of developing long-term partnerships that encourage investment from commercial partners is best achieved through lengthy, guaranteed contracts--but such contracts increase the DoD's risk in an environment that is intended to transfer more risk to the contractor. This research examines issues associated with the type and length of PBL contracts between DoD organizations and private industry. The thesis addresses the question of how the DoD can ideally balance PBL contracts to mitigate operational and financial risks while simultaneously building long-term partnerships that encourage investment from commercial contractors. The results reveal five main areas in which the government should focus its efforts to improve PBL implementation.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
We estimate the effects of share repurchases and employee stock option exercises on net share retirements for large S&P 500 companies. We find that, over the past five years, gross repurchases have reduced shares outstanding 2 percent annually; but, owing to the exercise of employee stock options, only about half of those shares were actually retired. Given the recent pace of employee stock option grants, and assuming that equities continue to be priced at about 30 times earnings, our analysis suggests that the pace of net share retirements will fall well below the pace of the last few years, unless corporations use nearly all their earnings to fund shareholder payouts. Moreover, over the long haul, assuming corporations need to retain 40 to 50 percent of their earnings to invest and grow at historical rates, the long-run average pace of net share retirements is likely to fall to 1/2 percent or less.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
This paper investigates how the growth of stock option programs has affected corporate payout policy. Given that earnings per share (EPS) is widely used in equity valuation, some corporations may opt to repurchase shares to avoid the dilution of EPS that results from past stock option grants. Executives may also prefer distributing cash by repurchasing shares or retaining more earnings, as opposed to increasing dividends, to enhance the value of their own stock options. This paper tests the importance of these two hypotheses using cross-sectional and panel data on stock option programs. I find that stock options granted to top executives affect payout policy differently than do stock options granted to other employees. Option grants in general are associated with increased share repurchases and increased total payouts. However, the larger is the executives' holding of stock options, the more apt the firm is to retain more earnings and curtail cash distributions. Analysis of panel data for a sample of large firms suggests that firms conduct an ongoing repurchase of shares over the life of an option that undoes much of the dilution to EPS that results from past stock option grants.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
The primary mission of the 12 cooperatively owned Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) is to provide their members financial products and services to assist and enhance member housing finance. In this paper, we consider the role of the FHLBs' traditional product--"advances," or collateralized loans to members--in stabilizing commercial bank members' residential mortgage lending activities.Our theoretical model shows that using membership criteria (such as a minimum of 10 percent of the portfolio being in mortgage-related assets) or using mortgage-related assets as collateral does not ensure that FHLB advances will be put to use for stabilizing members' financing of housing. Indeed, our model demonstrates that advances--a relatively low cost managed liability--are most likely to influence lending only when such liabilities are used to finance "relationship" loans (i.e., loans to bank-dependent borrowers) that will be held on a bank's balance sheet and are least likely to influence lending for loans where the loan rate is heavily influenced by securitization activities, like mortgages.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Technology Diffusion Within Central Banking
We examine the diffusion of the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) technology across the world's 174 central banks. RTGS reduces settlement risk and facilitates financial innovation in, for example, the settlement of foreign exchange trades. In 1985 only three central banks had implemented RTGS systems; by year-end 2006 that number had increased to ninetythree. We find that the RTGS diffusion process is consistent with a standard S-shaped curve. Real GDP per capita, the relative price of capital, and trade patterns explain a significant part of the cross-country variation in RTGS adoption. These determinants are remarkably similar to those that seem to drive cross-country adoption patterns of other technologies.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
